Every dollar, every life, every market shock, updated from public sources. Pentagon briefing to Congress (Oct 2026): $47.1 billion through Oct 16. CBO: another $2-3 billion a month while operations continue. Day -- of the conflict.
American families feeling it at home. Gas is up $0.98/gallon nationwide. Diesel jumped from $3.75 to $5.37/gallon (+43% in one month). Every sustained $10 rise in oil costs U.S. households $450 extra per year (Moody's).
New Zealand is not insulated. NZ imports roughly 75% of its liquid fuels. RBNZ paused planned rate cuts. NZ Food Price Index rose 4.2% MoM in March 2026 (Stats NZ preliminary data).
Global South on the edge. Pakistan, Egypt, Kenya, and Sri Lanka already in emergency IMF consultations. UN WFP warns of acute food insecurity in 60+ nations by Q3 2026.
| Conflict | Duration | Direct Military Cost | True Total | Daily Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran War 2026 (Day 204) | Ongoing · fragile pauses | ~$44B+ | Unknown (veterans + replenishment) | ~$82M/day now |
| Afghanistan (2001-2021) | 20 years | $2.31 trillion | $2.3T (Watson Institute) | $316M/day |
| Iraq War (2003-2011) | 8.5 years | $1.92 trillion | $1.9T (Watson Institute) | $619M/day |
| Gulf War (1990-1991) | 43 days | $102 billion | $102B (allies share) | $2.37B/day |
| Vietnam War (1965-1975) | 10 years | $900 billion | $900B+ incl. veterans | $247M/day |
| WWII U.S. share (1941-1945) | 4 years | $4.69 trillion | Largest in history | $3.2B/day |
| Region | Risk Level | Impact / Live Data | Key Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | Catastrophic | GDP -10%+ | Infrastructure destroyed, economy in freefall. 1.8M displaced. |
| Gulf States | Critical | Calculating...USD-pegged currencies | Qatar: 40% of world helium on force majeure. |
| United Kingdom | Critical | Calculating...GBP/USD fetching... | First G7 nation in recession. OECD: worst-hit major economy. |
| Germany & Italy | Critical | Calculating...EUR/USD fetching... | Energy-intensive manufacturing +30% cost surcharges. |
| United States | High | Calculating...Oil: fetching... | Goldman 30%, Moody's 48.6% recession odds. Gas up $0.98/gal. |
| Euro Zone | High | Calculating...EUR/USD fetching... | ECB halted rate cuts. Stagflation warning. |
| Japan | High | Calculating...JPY/USD fetching... | 97% oil imported. BoJ FX intervention. |
| Australia | Elevated | Calculating...AUD/USD fetching... | RBA raised rates 0.25pp on Mar 18. |
| New Zealand | Elevated | Calculating...NZD/USD fetching... | 75% fuel imports. RBNZ paused rate cuts. Food CPI +4.2% MoM. |
| India | Elevated | Calculating...INR pressure rising | 85% oil imported. RBI emergency meeting. |
| China | Moderate | Calculating...Diversified energy supply | Diversified energy mix. Suffers via global demand collapse. |
| Global South | Critical | Calculating...Multi-currency weakness | Fuel rationing. Emergency IMF consultations. |
New Zealand is highly exposed. Roughly 75% of liquid fuels are imported. Record freight costs from Singapore, a weaker NZD, and refined product constraints (damaged regional refineries harder to replace than crude) are pushing pump prices higher even as some crude flows recover. NZ ranks among the top countries for per-capita fuel cost increases from the oil shock. RBNZ has paused rate cuts. Food and transport inflation remain elevated. Electricity prices are also up ~9% year-on-year.
Cost counter: Pentagon unclassified estimate to Congress via NYT/Bloomberg (Sept 18, 2026): $47.1B through Oct 16 (munitions ~$29B munitions replacement, $11.2B incremental ops, $4.3B lost equipment). CBO (Sept 15): $38B through Aug 1, then $2-3B/month. OMB (June 30): $30B. Early $11.3B first-week figure (Mar 11 SASC / NYT) is retained as the opening-week anchor only. After mid-Oct the live ticker adds CBO midpoint burn (~$82M/day). Latest Pentagon figure $47.1B as of 16 Oct 2026.
Live market data: Yahoo Finance API via allorigins.win/corsproxy.io. Refreshes every 60 minutes. Prices delayed 15-20 min.
Currency rates: open.er-api.com (primary, CORS-enabled, free) with Frankfurter API and proxy fallbacks. GBP, EUR, NZD, AUD, JPY, CHF, INR. Updated hourly.
US Gas & Diesel prices: U.S. EIA open API - weekly national averages. Updated weekly (Mondays).
Fear & Greed index: alternative.me free API - crypto market sentiment. Updated daily.
Energy Crisis Index: 0-100 score per country, refreshed from APIs. Weights: oil shock vs $74 Brent baseline (40%), natural-gas shock vs $3.20/MMBtu (15%), FX weakness vs 27 Feb 2026 (15%), structural oil-import dependence (20%), Hormuz / LNG chokepoint exposure (10%). Live inputs from EIA, Yahoo Finance, metals.live, open.er-api.com and Frankfurter. Not an official IEA or World Energy Council ranking.
War Stress Index model: Weighted market-stress calculation - oil price shock (35%), currency basket weakness (25%), S&P 500 performance (20%), VIX elevation (10%), gold safe-haven premium (10%). Base: 15% pre-war. This is a stress indicator, not a formal recession probability model.
Recession odds: Goldman Sachs (30%), EY-Parthenon/Gregory Daco (40%), Moody's Analytics/Mark Zandi (48.6%), JP Morgan/Bob Michele (25%). Bloomberg Mar 25, CBS News, Fortune Mar 25, 2026.
Historical war costs: Watson Institute at Brown University "Costs of War" project. CRS R40727. All figures adjusted to 2026 USD.
Human cost: UNHCR (displacement), UN Human Rights, UNESCO, Hengaw, AP, Reuters. Civilian casualty figures are estimates and likely undercounts.